LPL RESEARCH
Below is a list of helpful documents to offer you additional financial perspective.
Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.
Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024
Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.
Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024
On traditional valuation measures, valuations do appear high and it does seem reasonable to expect more moderate stock market returns going forward. Here we walk through several different stock valuation approaches to get a more complete picture and even make the case that they aren’t as pricey as they look.
Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024
Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic. Tight financial conditions, slowing economic growth, and a disinflationary trend all support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot away from tightening monetary policy to easing in the new year. Despite these longer term trends, rates possibly got ahead of themselves in recent weeks, exhibiting higher volatility.
Magnificent Seven And Margins Are Keys To Q4 Earnings Season | Weekly Market Commentary | January 16, 2024
This reporting period may lack the splashy “earnings recession over” headlines we got last quarter, but it takes on added importance because it sets the tone for 2024. After 2023 was a year in which improving valuations delivered strong gains, this year, earnings will likely have to do the heavy lifting.
China 2024 Faces Demanding Challenges | Weekly Market Commentary | January 8, 2024
There were numerous reports suggesting the world’s second largest economy would ignite a bout of inflation as its industrial base would require vast quantities of commodities to power a newly energized China. Clearly that didn’t happen. Here we explore why and provide our updated thoughts on investing in China and emerging markets.
Lessons Learned In 2023 | Weekly Market Commentary | January 2, 2023
LPL Research had some wins and some losses as the market delivered its usual dose of humility to us and many market participants. In an effort to maintain accountability and learn from our mistakes (and hopefully not repeat them), we are starting the new year with our traditional lessons learned commentary.